top of page

Biodiversity prediction in the Atlantic rainforest

We applied a hypothesis-testing framework to predict spatial patterns of biodiversity in the megadiverse and threatened Atlantic Forest (AF) of Brazil. To this end, we have gathered five US-based and three Brazilian PIs to generate and integrate:

 

1. novel remote sensing-based datasets on land cover and climate, combined with meteorological data,

2. locality data, phylogenetic, and genomic-scale analyses from 30+ families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates,

3. information about functional traits (physiology) and biotic interactions, and

4. paleoenvironmental information from geological archives, including records of fossil pollen and speleothem isotopes (a proxy for precipitation changes, based on deposits in caves).

This work was co-funded by FAPESP (BIOTA, 2013/50297-0), NSF (DEB 1343578) and NASA, through the Dimensions of Biodiversity Program. 

 

 

CO-PIs on the grant:

Ana Carnaval, City College of CUNY

Mike Hikerson, City College of CUNY

Kyle McDonald, City College of CUNY

Fabian Michelangeli, NYBG

Wayt Thomas, NYBG

 

Cristina Miyaki, USP

Ricardo Pinto-da-Rocha, USP

Francisco Cruz, USP

 

To describe the spatial patterns of diversity in the AF, we synthesized the distribution of taxonomic diversity by integrating data from producers and consumers. We summarized broad patterns of endemism and turnover at the species and lineage levels. To advance diversity prediction, we are integrated data on the ecological mechanisms acting on the AF flora and fauna (the functional dimension of diversity) with dynamic climatic models that described variability of precipitation and temperature during the last six glacial- interglacial cycles. These models were informed by paleoclimatological studies, including our pollen fossil and speleothem records.

 

Through validated Approximate Bayesian Computation methods, we also used genetic, UCE, and RAD-Seq genomic diversity data from our multiple target taxa to statistically test the fit of the aggregate population histories to the inferred time-calibrated landscape shifts and demographic processes. These models allowed predictions of loss and gain of diversity under future environmental conditions.

City College of New York - Marshak Science Building 814

160 Convent Ave - New York, NY 10031

Phone: (212) 650 - 5099 Fax: (212) 650 - 8585

Contact

 

 

bottom of page